Technical Analysis Lovers

14 - Mei -2 010

2010-05-14T02:54:00.000-07:00

hi..i am going back today, i take 2 trade this morning with good results....80 pips today.

weekly Report ( 1st week of mei 2010 )

2010-05-07T01:03:00.000-07:00

"The truth is, whether you know it or not, your thoughts are responsible for whatever place or situation you are in right now."

Weekly report :
1. 3 Mei 2010 = 40 Pips
2. 4 Mei 2010 = 60 Pips
3. 5 Mei 2010 = 43 Pips
4. 6 Mei 2010 = 3 Pips
5. 7 Mei 2010 = 43 Pips

Total pips this week : 189 Pips

5 Trades : 5 Win / 0 Loss

Nice week...Let see next week.

7 Mei 2010

2010-05-07T00:43:00.000-07:00

Today " Vhaleandra 20 Ip sistem " is not going well, but still got 3 pips..fortunately, Vhaleandra IP sistem working as the plan..hit 40 pips..so nice day today for 43 pips..

6 Mei 2010

2010-05-06T02:09:00.000-07:00

This morning Vhaleandra 20 IP sistem hit my sl ( there are no perfect sistem in forex), but fortunately Vhaleandra Ip Intraday sistem going well today for 45 Pips. so today still got 3 pips. Not my day, but still profit.let see tomorrow..

5 Mei 2010

2010-05-05T00:15:00.001-07:00

This morning Vhaleandra 20 IP sistem going well..hit my stop loss for sell and going buy with more power, and hit my TP for 23 pips. let see for vhaleandra Ip intraday sistem for the second trade..

Updated : second trade using vhaleandra IP intraday sistem get another 40 pips using 0,1 lot. Nice day today for 60 pips.

4 Mei 2010

2010-05-03T23:39:00.000-07:00

I try my new sistem for the first trade named '" Super 20 vhaleandra Ip sistem " , it`s going well , 20 pips shoot....we will see for the second trade using my old style named " Vhaleandra Ip Intraday sistem " Hoping go well today.

Updated :
For the second trade using "Vhaleandra IP Intraday Sistem " going well..shoot another 40 pips..60 pips today, nice day for trading...

3 Mei 2010

2010-05-03T18:47:00.000-07:00

Today trading plan going well, another 40 pips..

April 2010 Trading Report

2010-04-30T19:16:00.000-07:00

Why we don't always learn from our mistakes

1. 26 April 2010 = 40 pips
2. 27 April 2010 = 40 Pips
3. 28 April 2010 = -92 Pips
4. 29 April 2010 = 40 Pips
5. 30 April 2010 = 10 Pips

Still Got : 38 Pips

5 Trades = 4 Win / 1 Loss

30 april 2010

2010-04-30T18:58:00.000-07:00

Today the price movement is not really strong, and it is quite a hard day to trade..Because in my experiance the loss usually almost coming at Friday..Still get 10 pips,, see u at monday .

29 - April - 2010

2010-04-29T03:26:00.000-07:00

Today my trading plan going well, Tp = 40 pips , remember always follows your trading rules....

28 April 2010

2010-04-28T07:36:00.001-07:00

Today trade is not going well cause my own mistake, in this trade i opened sell posisition too late , according to my trading style it should be 1.33191 , my second mistake ( Buy ) that happened to the second posisition is i change my target price which is should be 13251 ( 40 pips) and i changed it to 13271 ( 60 pips) without any backtest yet ..and one more thing, i only trade with 80 pips loss in one day, today i got 93 i made that stupid mistake..T_T..

So, what i get today is i learnt that i have to trade according to my trading strategy , not inffluence by hope, fear, and greedy. I prove it today that Forex Trading is 70% Psychology, 20% Money Management, and 10% Technique . So hoping tomorrow will be the nice day for trade...^_^

My last 2 days trade

2010-04-28T00:34:00.000-07:00

These 2 days, the trade going well...Hoping today is not bad....

G. William % R and Aroon Index

2008-08-15T08:58:00.000-07:00

" Failure is only the ability to begin again, only this time more wisely "

1. William % R

William % R was developed by Larry Williams that is used to measure the overbought and oversold areas. In william %R, the movement of the price at the -30 until 0 will be overbought area and -70 until -100 will be the oversold area.

Each price is a consensus of value among traders. The recent high range shows the bulls or buyers maximum power. The low of the recent range reflects the maximum power of the bears during that trading range. The most important consensus is as always the closing price Williams %R compares each closing price to the recent range indicating whether bulls can close the price near the top of the range, or bears can close the market at the bottom of the price. Price may be pushed higher or lower during the day but the Williams %R will indicate which group is actually capable of closing the market.

If bulls cannot close the market near the top of a rally they are weaker than they seem and this creates a shorting opportunity. If bears cannot close the market near the lows during a decline then they are weaker than they appear and this creates a buying opportunity. It is important to remember that overbought does not necessarily imply time to sell, and oversold does not necessarily imply time to buy. A security can be in a downtrend, become oversold and remain oversold as the price continues to trend lower. Once a security becomes overbought or oversold, traders should wait for a signal that a price reversal has occurred.

As always, price reversal confirmation can also be accomplished by using other indicators or aspects of technical analysis with Williams %R. One method of using Williams %R might be to identify the underlying trend and then look for trading opportunities in the direction of the trend. In an uptrend, traders may look to oversold readings to establish long positions. In a downtrend, traders may look to overbought readings to establish short positions.

2. Arron Index

Aroon index was developed by Tushar Chande at 1995, aroon index is the indicator that is used to measure the prices are in the strong trend or weakness trend besides that it can be used to know the price in the consolidation trend or not.

Aroon index cases :

If Upper Aroon and Lower Aroon are moving lower in are close by to each other, it means that no strong trend is apparent.
If upper Aroon slightly goes below 50, it is an indication that the current uptrend has lost its momentum. Vice versa in case of Lower Aroon.
If value in case of either Aroon is above 70 then it indicates strong trend, direction depends on which Aroon is above 70. If Upper then uptrend, if lower then downtrend.
If value in case of either Aroon is below 30, it is an indication that strong trend in the opposite direction is coming. So sign of possible reversal.

F. On Balance Volume

2008-08-15T08:30:00.000-07:00

" The secret of success is constancy to purpose "

On Balance Volume is well-suited to trading short-term cycles, however, Granville advises that investors must act quickly and decisively if they wish to profit from short-term OBV analysis. Traders also recommend that the daily, weekly and monthly charts should be consulted for OBV to confirm the buy and sell signal.

On balance volume is the momentum indicator which connect the volume anlysis with the change of the price. Obv was developed by Joe Granville in his book titled ' New strategy of daily stock market timing for maximum profit ".The OBV line should follow in the same direction as the price trend. If prices are in an uptrend, the OBV line should do the same. If prices are trending lower, the OBV line should do the same. If the OBV line shows a divergence from the price trend, you have a warning of a possible trend reversal. OBV changes usually precede price changes.

OBV shows if volume is flowing into or out of a security, or the buying and selling pressure. When there's strong and increasing buying pressure, the price is almost certain to continue going up The theory is that money from knowledgeable traders, or. "smart money," can be seen flowing into the security by a rising OBV. When the public then moves into the security, both the security and the OBV will surge ahead.

Always watch for OBV line breakouts, when the OBV breaks its established trend. Since OBV breakouts normally precede price breakouts, an OBV upside breakout is a buy signal. Likewise, an OBV downside breakout is a sell signal.

E. Parabolic Sars

2008-08-15T08:12:00.001-07:00

" Failure is only the ability to begin again, only this time more wisely "

Parabolic sars is developed by J Welles Wilder, this indicator help you as trend indicator which look like spot. If the prices are in the uptrend the parabolic sars will be below the price or candles and if the price is at the downtrend the parabolic sars will be at the top of the prices or candles.

D. Rsi and Stochostic

2008-08-15T08:01:00.001-07:00

" You have to expect things of yourself before you can do them "

D. RSI and Stochostic Oscilator

Rsi and stochostis is overbought and oversold indicators, but remeber you cannot decide to buy or sell if only you see the prices are in the overbought or oversold position , you need other indicators to confirm. Remember that if the prices are in the oversold or overbought position it means that the price might be reserved but we don`t know when it will reserved.

1. Rsi

RSI was developed by J. Welles Wilder and introduced in his 1978 book, New Concept In Technical Trading Sistem , the Relative Strength Index is an extremely useful and popular momentum oscillator. The RSI compares the magnitude of a stock's recent gains to the magnitude of its recent losses and turns that information into a number that ranges from 0 to 100. It takes a single parameter, the number of time periods to use in the calculation. In his book, Wilder recommends using 14 periods to get better results.

The RSI's full name is actually rather unfortunate as it is easily confused with other forms of Relative Strength analysis such as John Murphy's "Relative Strength" charts and IBD's "Relative Strength" rankings. Most other kinds of "Relative Strength" stuff involve using more than one stock in the calculation. Like most true indicators, the RSI only needs one stock to be computed. In order to avoid confusion, many people avoid using the RSI's full name and just call it "the RSI."

Wilder recommended using 70 and 30 and overbought and oversold levels respectively. Generally, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish for the underlying stock. Conversely, if the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. Some traders identify the long-term trend and then use extreme readings for entry points. If the long-term trend is bullish, then oversold readings could mark potential entry points.

2. Stochostic Oscilator

Stochostic oscilator was developed by George C Lane at 1950, this indicator is one of the momentum indicators that only show the closing posistion.

The calculation is very simple :

K = ((C-L)/(H-L))*100

Where :

K =Lane`s stochostic
C = Latest closing price
L = Then period low price
H = Then n-period high price

Additionally , Lane methods specifically required that the K be smoothed twice with three - period simple moving average. Two other calculations are then made :

a. SK = three period simple moving average of K
b. SD = three period simple moving average of SK

The basic method is to buy when Sk is above the SD , and sell when Sk moves below the Sd. However stochosic employ fixed period-to-period calculation that can move about erractically as the earliest data point is dropped for the next day`s calculation.

Usually use 20 and 80 as the oversold and overbought areas, please you need others indicator to confirm it do not buy just because you see the prices are at the overbought position and vice versa, use other indicators to confirm it.

C. Bollinger Band

2008-08-15T07:46:00.000-07:00

" There is no failure except in no longer trying "

Bollinger band are designed to capture the majority of the price movement, when the price move beyond the upper or lower band, they are considered high (overbought ) or low (oversold) on a relative basis. used the bollinger band for indication of when a breakout or breakdown is imminent, when the outside band get very narrow, it mean the price is consolidating and is getting ready to breakout either up or down. At this point it is dangerous to take posisition because you don`t know if it is going to break up or down.

Sometimes , when the price penetrates bollinger ban and only tries new level , then comeback right away, it may be a false breakout. If it is a breakout then you have the possibility to trade against the trend. However it is important if you make sure the breakout is false.

Bollinger band show the strenght of the market :

1. Bollinger band contract when the market is quiet, without sharp price movement consolidating to continue the prevailing trend.
2. When price move outside the band , a continuation of the current trend is implied.
3. A move that originates at one band tends to go all the way to other band, this observation is useful when projecting price targets.
4. Bottom and tops made outside the bands followed by bottoms and tops made inside the band call for reversal in the trends.
5. Sharp price changes tend to occur after the bands tighten as volatility lessens.
6.Bollinger band widen when the prevailing trend becomes stronger or at the beginning of new trend.

How to use Bollinger band :

Using bollinger band as intended by their inventor one must either subscribe the emphatic with the following premises about market behavior :

1. Low volatility tends to predicate sharp price changes
2. A move that star at one of the upper or lower band, should go all the way to the other
3. If the market top or bottom, first outside the bands and then within bands, the market is likely to reserve the recent trend.
4. If and when the market moves outside the bands the move shoudl should continue.

B. Macd

2008-08-15T07:35:00.000-07:00

" Eighty percent of success is showing up "

Macd was developed by gerald apppel, this moving average convergence / divergence is one ot the most simplest indicator that easy to use. Macd is lagging indicator, it turn into momentum oscilator by substracting the longer moving average from shorter moving average.

The most popular fot the standard macd is the difference between 26 and 12 days exponential moving averages. A positive MACD indicates that the 12 - day Ema is trading above 26 - days Ema, and a negative MACD indicates that the 12 - day Ema is trading below the 26 - day Ema, If MACD is positive and rising and the gap between the 12 day Ema and 26 day ema is widening , this indicates that the rate of change of the faster moving average is higher than the rate of change for the slower moving average and vice versa.

A. Moving Average

2008-08-15T07:14:00.000-07:00

" If at first you don't succeed, change your strategy, not your goal "

Moving averages are useful in different ways, at different times. Five important uses of moving averages are to help in identifying:

1. Direction of a trend, ranging from short- to long-term
2. Strength of a trend
3. Support and resistance levels in a trend or in a trading range
4. Divergences that occur between indicators and price, suggesting a
possible future trend reversal
5. Trend reversal confirmations, also ranging from short- to long-term

There are three types of Moving Averages:

Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

Formula for the Simple Moving Average (SMA):

P - price of i-bar;
n - MA period.

Formula for the Weighted Moving Average (WMA):

where :

P - price of i-bar;
W - weight of i-bar.

Formula for the Exponential Moving Average (EMA):

EMA(t) = EMA(t - 1) + (K x [Price(t) - EMA(t - 1)],

where :

t - current time period;
t -1 - previous time period;
K = 2 / (n + 1);
n - EMA period.

How to use moving average ?

1. You can open position when there is a golden cross and dead cross, but make sure you have confirmed it with other indicator.

2. You can use it as a support and resistance ( i already discuss it please go to support and resistance part )

3. Determine the trend

Chapter 5. --- Technical Indicators

2008-08-13T21:12:00.000-07:00

" Remember that happiness is a way of travel, not a destination ”

Indicators involve of mathematical formulas usually based onprice activity.Along with analyzing chart patterns, indicators in technical analysis provide a second major method of evaluating marketactivity. They also can help us forecast the continuation of price trends. Indicators are very useful in different ways, at different times.

There are five important uses of indicators which are helping us to :
1. Direction of a trend, ranging from short- to long-term
2. Strength of a trend
3. Support and resistance levels in a trend or in a trading range
4. Divergences that occur between indicators and price, suggesting a
possible future trend reversal
5. Trend reversal confirmations, also ranging from short- to long-term

In this chapter i will discus about :
1. Moving average
2. MACD
3. Bollinger Band
4. RSI and Stochostic
5. Parabolic Sars
6. On Balance Volume
7. William % R and Aroon index

Chapter 4. --- Renko and Kagi Chart

2008-08-13T06:30:00.000-07:00

“ Many of life's failures are men who did not realize how close they were to success when they gave up ”

A. Renko Chart

The Renko chart is a trend following technique. It has acquired its name from a Japanese word "renga" meaning bricks.Renko charts is different from Three Line Break charts as here a line brick is drawn in the direction of the prior move only if prices move by a minimum amount which is equivalent to the box size that are always equal in size. Renko charts are always based on the closing prices. Renko bricks are drawn after comparing, that day’s close with the previous brick (high or low). A "box size" which determines the minimum price change to show is specified.

I cannot explain about how to construct renko chart because i try to as soon as possible to finish all of this materials, to construct the renko chart you can find it by searching in internet but usually in metastock you can use the renko chart without manually calculate anything. ^_^

This renko chart is easy to used, if you see the blue blick it mean buy and red blick mean sell, but you must need other indicator and technic to make sure you are in the right position to buy or sell.

B. Kagi Chart

Kagi chart comes from the ]apanese word "kagi," which was an old fashioned key that had an L-shaped head. This is the reason that kagi charts are also called key charts by some ]apanese.FF I he Kagi chart is thought to have been created around the time that the Japaneses tock market started trading in the 1870s.

The basic of the kagi chart is that the thickness and the directionof the kagi lines are dependent on the market's action. If the market continues to move in the direction of the prior kagi line, that line is extended. However, if the market reverses by a predetermined amount, a new kagi line is drawn in the next column in the opposite direction. An interesting aspect of the kagi chart is that when prices penetrate a prior low or high, the thickness of the kagi line changes. The thick kagi line is called a yang line and the thin kagi line is called a yin line.The short horizontal line on the kagi chart is labeled the inflection line.

The are many ways to use kagi charts, but the most basic is to buy when the kagi line goes from thin to thick, and to sell when the kagi line changes from thick to thin.

G. Continuation Pattern

2008-08-13T04:46:00.001-07:00

“Those who bring sunshine into the lives of others cannot keep it from themselves”

Continuation pattern means that the trend will continue after resting for a while, If we are in the uptrend, it is not mean that the trend will reserve soon and vice versa, so except we know about reversal trend we have to take notice about continuation trend too.

These are the formations of continuation pattern.

picture can be zoomed

F. Bearish Reversal Pattern

2008-08-13T02:49:00.000-07:00

“The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance -, it is the illusion of knowledge”

Bearish reversal pattern will happen at the top of the uptrend. The bearish reversal pattern happen because the buyers loss the power to keep raising the price and this situation is used by sellers to make it reversal from bullish to bearish . Here is below there are bearish reversals which usually occur at the market :

picture can be zoomed

E. Bullish Reversal Pattern

2008-08-13T02:20:00.000-07:00

" If you would lift me you must be on higher ground "

Bullish reversal pattern will happen at the bottom of the downtrend. The bullish reversal pattern happen because the sellers loss the power to keep declining the price and this situation is used by buyers to make it reversal from bearish to bullish . Here is below there are bullish reversals which usually occur at the market :

the picture can be zoomed

C. dojis

2008-08-12T08:47:00.000-07:00

“If you are not big enough to lose, you are not big enough to win.”

Dojis are one of the most important candlestick pattern that used to give you information about the traders psychology in the market. The doji formations show the closing and the opening prices are the same level. The long of shadow at below and above candle can be so various and the doji formations look like plus ( + ) or crucifix.

Dojis have many variations, some of them are :

1. long Legged doji
2. Dragonfly Doji
3. Gravestone Doji

a. Long Legged Doji

Long Legged doji is a doji with shadow at top and below candlestick which is has same range. Always remember the doji formations always indicates that there is an indecision in the market. This Formations indicates that in the beginning session the buyer and sellers move or fight actively but around the closing session the price pull back near the opening level.

b.Dragon Fly Doji

Dragon fly doji is formed when the level of opening price, highest price, the closing price are the same whereas the lowest price formed a long shadow.The dragonfly doji will look like "T" word.

Dragon Fly doji indicates that the sellers dominate at the beginning session and bring the price down but around the closing session the buyers start moving and pushing the price up near the the highest price. The longer the shadow below the candle indicates there are desirability of sellers to push the price down.

If at the downtrend after the price declining for some periods and one of the candle form dragonfly doji it is a possible that the trend will reserve or change to uptrend, whereas if at the uptrend after the price raising for some periods and one of the candle form dragonfly doji, it is a possible the trend will reserve or change to downtrend. But this is not enough you will need other confirmation to make sure the trend has been reserved.

c. Gravestone doji

Gravestone doji is the doji that formed when the level of opening price, lowest price and closing price are the same whereas the highestt price formed a long shadow.

This gravestone doji indicates that buyers dominate at the beginning session and bring the price to the highest level but the around the closing session the sellers start moving and pushing the price down near the lowest price.

If at the downtrend after the price declining for some periods and one of the candle form gravestone doji it is a possible that the trend will reserve or change to uptrend, whereas if at the uptrend after the price raising for some periods and one of the candle form gravestone doji, it is a possible the trend will reserve or change to downtrend. But this is not enough you will need other confirmation to make sure the trend has been reserved.

B. Introduction Of Candlestick

2008-08-11T21:30:00.000-07:00

“He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good.”

To form a candlestick , you need the datas of the opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price. All of these datas will form a candle and guide you to analyze the level of trader psychologies.

This part will discuss about :

a. Candlestick formation
b. Long real body and short real body
c. Long shadow and short shadow
d. Marubozu

1. Candlestick Formations

At candlestick charts you will often find the white and black candle, Do you know that white and black candle have their own meanings ?

1. White Candle mean that buyers have more power to dominate the sellers at that periods.

2. Black Candle mean that sellers have more power to dominate the buyers at that periods.

If the closing price above the opening price, the candle will form a white candle mean buyers dominate sellers and if the closing price below the opening price , the candle will form black candle mean sellers dominate buyers at that time.

The range between the opening and closing price or the part of candle that has white and black color is called real body, whereas the thin line above and below the real body is called shadow, this shadow regard as the higher or lower of the price at that period.

2. Long real body and short real body

Generally the longer the real body, indicates the more power of traders to buy and sell in the market. whereas the shorter the body, indicates the less power of trader to buy or sell in the market.

White candlestick with long body show there is a strong power of buyers to raise the price. White candlestick with long body indicates the reversal might be happened, but you have to notice the position of the price.

Black candle with long body show there is a strong power of sellers to decline the price. Black candle with long body indicates the reversal from bullish to bearish might be happened but you have to notice the position of the price.

Real body with shorter candle, indicates there is less power of buyers and sellers to trade in the market , it also indicates there is an indecision in market.

White and black candle in the market show there is an indecision and there might be a change of the trend, so be careful . ^_^

3. Long and Short Shadow

Shadow at below and above the real body will give you useful information at every trading session. Upper shadow represent the highest price and lower shadow represent the lowest price at every session.

Candlestick with short shadow indicates the price only move around the opening and closing price at that period.

Candlestick with long shadow indicates the price leaving far away the opening and closing price at that period.

Candlestick with long shadow at upper real body and short shadow at below the real body indicate at the beginning session the the buyers dominate the market, but the sellers start pushing it down from it highest price and as the result the the closing form a long shadow above the real body.

Candlestick with long at below real body and short shadow at above the real body indicate at the beginning session the the sellers dominate the market, but the buyers start pushing it up from it lowest price and as the result the the closing form a long shadow below the real body.

4. Marubozu

marubozu is the full candle with long real body and there is no shadow below or above the real body.

Marubozu with white candle indicates the buyer have strong power to dominate the trading for that session.

Marubozu with black candle indicates the sellers have strong power to dominate the trading for that session.

Closing marubozu is the marubozu with no shadow at the closing level. A white body will not have a shadow at the top, and the black candle will not have a shadow at the bottom.

Opening marubozu is the marubozu with no shadow at the opening level. The white body will not have a shadow at bottom and the black body will not have shadow at the upper real body. These are strong signals but they are not strong as the opening marubozu.

A. History Of Candlestick

2008-08-11T19:44:00.000-07:00

“ It's hard to beat a person who never gives up ”

Candlestick has been used since 1700, Munehisa Homma is the most famous Japanese that used the candlestick to predict the future rice price by using the past price.

Homma, who traded rice futures discovered that markets were strongly influenced by emotions of the traders. And he realized that he could understand the emotions he could use that to predit futures. Between 1500 and 1600 the territories of today's Japan were at constant war. Each daimyo (feudal lord) was in constant contention to take over their neighbor. This one hundred year period is known as Sengoku Jidai or the "Age of Country at War"l. It slowly came to order in the early 1600's through three dynamic generals - Nobunaga Oda, Hideyoshi Toyotomi, and Ieyasu Tokugawa. Their combined leadership prowess has become legendary folklore in Japan's history. Their achievements are described as: "Nobunaga piled the rice, Hideyoshi kneaded the dough, and Tokugawa ate the cake." All the contributions from these great generals unified Japan into one nation. Tokugawa's family ruled the country from 1615 to 1867. This become known as the Tokugawa Shogunate Era.

The relative stability engendered by the centralized Japanese feudal system lead by Tokugawa offered new opportunities. The agrarian economy grew, but, more importantly, there was expansion and ease in domestic trade. By the 17th century, a national market had evolved to replace the system of local and isolated markets. This concept of a centralized marketplace was to indirectly lead to the development of technical analysis in Japan.

Because at that time Japanese did`nt have any standard exchange, their use rice as the tool to trade. So if one daimyo need money, he will send his rice to Osaka, that rice will be kept in the warehouse and he will get a coupon that he can sell it anytime he want. Rice traders tend to sell their coupon to avoid paying tax which is 40%-60% as a delivery fee. This was a beginning of word`s future market.

With this background, Munehisa homma dominate the rice price in Japan successfully. Munehisa Homma was born at 1724, at 1750 his father was death and he was appointed to continue his father business. Munehisa started his rice business at sakata city which is near with the port. Sakata is the city near the port that used to keep and distribute rice.

to dominate the price in edo market. In Edo people made a song to appreciate Homma, the lyrics are :

“ When the weather in sakata is bright and clear, the weather in Osaka will be cloudly and it will be raining in Edo.”

It means that when there is harvesting time in sakata, the rice price in Osaka will drop and rice price in Edo will be really fall. After dominating the rice price in Japan . Homma was appointed by japanese government as the consultant and get the admiration as a samurai. He died at 1803 then. It is believed that around 1700s he ever wrote a book about his principle of trading. This book than give a big change for many Japanese traders. Until now, Candlestick method has been spread all over the world , and quite popular not only for Japanese traders but many westerns traders has been used it too.

Chapter 3. --- Japanese Candlestick

2008-08-10T09:31:00.000-07:00

“ Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated ”

Japanese Candlestick is a method that has been used by japanese for centuries to predict the market using the past price. it is belived that all of japanese traders use this method. These are reasons why candlestick can be so profitable and powerfull :

1. Candlestick are so flexible, means that you can combine the western indicators with candlestick to get optimal profit.

2. Candlestick can be used to measure the level of traders pschology.

3. Easy to use, because every pattern have their own uniq names.

Candlestick charts provide many useful trading signals. They do not, however, provide price targets. There are other methods to forecast targets (such as prior support or resistance levels, retracements, swing objectives, and so on). Some Japanese candlestick practitioners place a trade based on a candlestick signal. and stay with that trade until another candlestick pattern tells them to offset. Candlestick patterns should always be viewed in the context as to what occurred before and in relation to other technical evidence

Candlestick charts allow you to use the same technical devices that you use with bar charts. But the candlestick charts give you signals not available with bar charts. So why use a bar chart?

in this chapter i will discuss about :

A. The Story Of Candlestick

B. Introduction of candlestick

C. Dojis

D. Bullish Reversal Pattern

E. Bearish Reversal Pattern

F. Continuation Pattern

Chapter 2. --- Dow Theory

2008-08-10T07:32:00.000-07:00

“Believe in yourself! Have faith in your abilities! Without a humble but reasonable confidence in your own powers you cannot be successful or happy.”

The dow theory is the oldest method of identifying major trends in stock market. From the earliest days, it was well known that stocks moved up and down together. The Dow Theory was an attempt by Charles H. Dow to measure this movement by means of the average price of a selected number of stocks and to use these averages to predict the behavior of business trends. Mr. Dow founded the Dow-Jones Financial Service.

In a number of editorials in the Wall Street Journal, he outlined the basic principles of what is now known as the Dow Theory. However it was left to William P. Hamilton, his successor at the Journal to organize the Dow Theory and formulate it in the form it is known today. The goal of the theory is to determine changes in the primary movement of the market. Once a trend has benn established, it is assumed to exist until a reversal is proved. Dow theory is concerned with the direction of a trend abd has no forecasting value as to its ultimate duration size.

** Interpreting the theory **

1. The average discount everything

Change in the daily closing prices reflect the agregate judgement and emotion of all stock market participant. It is of course impossible to predict random natural disasters (Acts of God), but even in this case it is thought that once the event has occurred, the market is capable of assessing and discounting its impact.

2. The Market moves with Three types of movement.

The Primary movements are the broad over-all movement of the market and lasts for a period of more than a year. The Primary Movement is actually made up of a number of Intermediate up and down movements the effect of which is to keep the market moving in the direction of the Primary trend.

A primary bear market is a long decline interrupted by important rallies. It begins as the hopes on which the stocks were first purchased are abandoned. The second phase eveolves as the level of business activity and profits decline. The bear market reach a climax when stocks are liquidated regardless of their underlying value (because of depressing state of the news or because of forced liquidation caused), this represents the third stage of the bear market.

A primary bull market is a broad upward movement, normally averaging at least 18 months, which is interrupted by secondary reactions. The bull market begins when the averages have discounted the worst possible news, and confidence about the future begins to revive. The second stage of the bull market is the response of equities to know improvements in business conditions, while the third and final phase evolves from overconfidence and speculation when stocks are advanced on projections that usually prove to be unfounded.

The Secondary Reaction moves opposite to the primary trend. It generally lasts between three weeks and three months and typically retrace about a third to a half of the last intermediate move

Minor movements lasts froma a week or two up to as long as 6 weeks. It is important only in that it forms part of the primary or secondary moves.

3. Lines Indicate Movement

An advance above the limits of the line indicates accumulation and predicts higher prices and vice versa. When a line occurs in the middle of a primary advance, it is really forming a orizontal secondary movement and should be treated as such.

4. Price or volume relationship provide background

If volume becomes dull on a price advance and expands on a decline, a warning is given that prevailing trend may soon reversed.

5. Price Action Determines the Trend

Bullish indication are given when succesive rallies penetrate peaks while the through of an intervening decline is above the preceding trough.

6. The Average must confirm

One of the most important principles of dow theory is that the movement of the industrial average and the transportation average should always be considered together. The need for confirming action by botth average would seem fundamental logical , because if the market is trully a barometer of future business conditions, investors should be bidding up the prices both of companies that produce goods and of companies that transport them in expanding economy.

F. GAPS

2008-08-10T06:49:00.000-07:00

“The foolish person seeks happiness in the distance, the wise person grows it under his feet.”

** GAPS **

A gap is a "hole" in the chart -- a space or a vacuum that is empty, at least temporarily, of price action. There are four types of gaps: common, breakaway, runaway, and exhaustion.

Gaps are simply areas on the bar chart where no trading has taken place.An upward gap occurs when the lowest price for one day is higher than the highest price of the preceding day. A downward gap means that the highest price for one day is lower than the lowest price of the preceding day. There are some reasons why a gap may appear in the graph of an individual stock. One of the most common causes of a gap is an earnings release that is above or below Wall Street's expectations. Other causes of gaps include an analyst upgrade or downgrade, a merger announcement, or the release of a significant news item. A large gap implies a temporary supply/demand imbalance. The larger the gap, the more extreme the imbalance. A downside price gap of several dollars -- particularly on high volume -- reflects urgent selling. On the other hand, an upside price gap of several dollars on high volume represents intense buying. This sense of urgency is seldom played out in a single trading session.

The breakaway gap usually occurs upon completion of an important price pattern and signals a significant market move. A breakout above the neckline of a head and shoulders bottom, for example, often occurs on a breakaway gap. The runaway gap usually occurs after the trend is well underway. It often appears about halfway through the move (which is why it is also called a measuring gap since it gives some indication of how much of the move is left.) During uptrends,the breakaway and runaway gaps usually provide support below the market on subsequent market dips; during downtrends, these two gaps act as resistance over the market on bounces.

The exhaustion gap occurs right at the end of the market move and represents a last gasp in the trend. Sometimes an exhaustion gap is followed within a few days by a breakaway gap in the other direction, leaving several days of price action isolated by two gaps. This market phenomenon is called the island reversal and usually signals an important market turn.

E. Volume and Open Interest

2008-08-10T04:31:00.000-07:00

" Action may not always bring happiness, but there is no happiness without action ”

A. Volume

Volume is the number of units traded during a given time period,which is usually a day. The analysis of volume is a very important element of technical analysis. Volume provides important secondary confirmation of the price action on the chart and often gives advance warning of an impending shift in trend.

Low volume level are characterictic of the indecisive expectations that typically occur during consolidation. Low volume also often occurs during the indecisive period during market bottoms.

High volume levels are characteristic of market top when there is a strong consencus that price will move higher. High volume levels are also very common at the beginning of new trends.

Volume can help determine the health of an existing trend. A healthy up trend should have higher volume on the upward legs of the trend, and lower volume on the downtrend. Volume measures the pressure behind a given price move. As a rule, heavier volume (marked by larger vertical bars at the bottom of the chart) should be present in the direction of the prevailing price trend. During an uptrend, heavier volume should be seen during rallies, with lighter volume (smaller volume bars) during downside corrections. In downtrends, the heavier volume should occur on price selloffs. Bear market bounces should take place on a lighter volume.

Some of Volume indicators :

1. Volume oscilator

This indicator display the difference between two moving averages of security`s volume. You can use the difference between 2 moving averages of volume to determine if the overall volume trend is increasing or decreasing. When the price is above zero, it indicates that the shorter - term volume moving average has risen above the longer - term volume moving average and vice versa.

it is belived that the rising prices couple with increased volume and falling price coupled with decreased volumr is bullish, conversely if volume increase when price fall and volume decrease when price rise, the market is showing signs of underlying weakness. The theory is straight forward, rising prices copled with increased volume signifies increased upside participation that should lead to a continued move and vice versa.

2. On Balance Volume

On balance volume is a momentum indicator that can be measured by using the connection volume analysis and the change of price. OBV discovered by Joe Granville at his book titled " New strategy of daily stock market timing for maximum profits'.

The OBV line is usually plotted along the bottom of the price chart. The idea is to make sure the price line and the OBV line are trending in the same direction. If prices are rising, but the OBV line is flat or falling, that means there may not be enough volume to support higher prices. In that case, the divergence between a rising price line and a flat or falling OBV line is a negative warning. OBV can be regarded in the uptrend if the OBV at the higher points than previous points. If the share prices are in uptrend the OBV should in uptrend too, but if the price and the OBV are contradicted, this will be a signal the trend will reserve.

B. Open interest

Open interest is the total number of futures or options on futures contracts that have not yet been offset or fulfilled by delivery. It is an indicator of the depth or liquidity of a futures market, which influences the ability to buy or sell at or near a given price.

Open interest can be a tricky concept, especially for beginners. In a nutshell, here's how open interest is calculated: If a new buyer (a long) and new seller (a short) enter a trade, open interest increases by one. However, if a trader already holding a long position sells to a new trader wanting to initiate a long position, open interest remains the same. And if a trader holding a long position sells to a trader wanting to get rid of his existing short position, open interest decreases by one.

Open interest increase when a buyer and seller create a ne contract, this happen when buyer initiates a long posisition and the seller initiates a short posisition. Open interest decrease when buyer and sellers liquidate existing contract. This happens when buyer is selling an existing long posisition and the sellers is covering an existing short posisition.

D. All About Trend

2008-08-09T22:51:00.000-07:00

"A prudent man has more than one string to his bow"

In this chapter we will discuss about : "Trend is your friends , trendline and channel line "

1. Trend Is Your Friends

Trends are very easy to see on a chart. They are seen best over a long time period—weeks, months, and years. If prices are going up, the trend is up and if the prices are going down, the trend is down. But, If prices go up and then down, is the trend up or down? The answer is “yes.” The prices going up in the long term, over the period of the entire chart, but down in the shorter term, the last two years.

One standard definition of an uptrend is a succession if higher highs and higher lows. The trend can be considered intact until a previous reaction low point is broken. The violation of this condition indicates a warning signal that the trend may be over. It should be emphasized, however, that the disruption of the pattern of higher highs and higher lows (or lower highs and lower lows) should be viewed as a clue, not a conclusive indicator, of a possible long-term trend reversal. Uptrends and downtrends are often defined in terms of trend lines. An uptrend line is a line that connects a series of higher lows, while a downtrend line is a line that connects a series of lower highs.

A trend exits when prices keep rising or falling over time. In an uptrend, each rally reaches a higher high than the preceding rally and each decline stops at a higher level than the preceding decline. In a downtrend each decline falls to a lower low than the preceding decline and each rally stops at a lower level than the preceding decline and each rally stops at a lower level than the preceding rally. The trend is always a matter of time interval. Even over a few days, two traders may see the same market as going in different directions. Each one can make money or lose money within the same period by correctly or incorrectly deciding where to buy and where to sell.

2. Trendline and Channel line

Trend lines and channels are useful, but their importance is often overstated. It is easy to overestimate the reliability of trend lines when they are drawn with the benefit of hindsight. A consideration that is frequently overlooked is that trend lines often need to be redrawn as a bull or bear market is extended. Thus, although the penetration of a trend line will sometimes offer an early warning signal of a trend reversal, it is also common that such a development will merely require a redrawing of the trend line.

The following rules are usually applied to trend lines and channels:

1. Declines approaching an uptrend line and rallies approaching a downtrend line are often good opportunities to initiate positions in the direction of the major trend.

2. The penetration of an uptrend line (particularly on a closing basis) is a sell signal; the penetration of a downtrend line is a buy signal. Normally, a minimum percentage price move or a minimum number of closes beyond the trend line is required to confirm a penetration.

3. The lower end of a downtrend channel and the upper end of an uptrend channel represent potential profit-taking zones for short-term traders.

** Trendline **

Trend lines are a simple and widely used technical analysis approach to judging entry and exit investment timing. To establish a trend line historical data, typically presented in the format of a chart such as the above price chart, is required. Historically, trend lines have been drawn by hand on paper charts, but it is now more common to use charting software that enables trend lines to be drawn on computer based charts. There are some charting software that will automatically generate trend lines, however most traders prefer to draw their own trendlines.

Trendlines have two major uses.They allow identification of support and resistance levels that can be used, while a market is trending, to initiate new positions. As a rule, the longer a trendline has been in effect and the more times it has been tested, the more significant it becomes.The violation of a trendline is often the best warning of a change in trend.You can draw a trendline with two points, but three or four are even better.

This trendlines are divided into 3 parts :

A. Uptrend

When you seen uptrend, it mean that the market is dominated by buyers, and the price going higher and higher until the the buyers lose the control and sellers start push it down.An uptrend is formed by connecting the lowest rising prices.

B. Sideway / Rangging trend

Mean that during that certain periods, the power of buyers and sellers are the same.To draw this trend just find the trend that move back and fourth with smaller power from buyers or sellers. This mean there is an indecision in market, so prepare yourself because this trend will go up or down soon.

C. Downtrend

When you seen downtrend, it mean that the market is dominated by sellers, and the price going lower and lower until the the sellers lose the control and buyers start push it up. An downtrend is formed by connecting the lowest rising prices.

** Channel Line **

Channel lines are straight lines that are drawn parallel to basic trendlines. A rising channel line would be drawn above the price action and parallel to the basic trendline (which is below the price action). A declining channel line would be drawn below the price action and parallel to the down trendline(which is above the price action).

C. Support and Resistance

2008-08-09T20:44:00.000-07:00

"Iearning is Like Rowing Upstream, Not to Advance is to Fall Back"

Support and Resistence

Support is a level below the market where buying pressure exceeds selling pressure and rally is halted. The exceed of demand will stop the decline of the price and raise the level of price.

Resistance is a level above the market where selling pressure exceeds buying pressure and rally is halted. The exceed of supply will stop the raise of the price and decline the level of price.

Support and Resistance areas are not predictors of where the price will reverse, but as the signal that there is a possible the price will reverse.

Resistance become new support

When the price penetrated resistance, there is a possible that the old resistance will be the new support.

This is happened because the new generation of bull or buyers who didn`t buy when the price lower than the price below resistance level are now anxious to buy when the prices return near that old resistance level.

Look at the example at figure 1.2 , when the price penetrated resistance level (3000) the buyer who didn`t buy when the price below 3000 are now anxiously buy when the price return near that 3000 (old resistance level).

Support become new resistance

When the price penetrated support, there is a possible that the old support will be the new resistance.

This is happened because the new generation of bear or sellers who didn`t sell when the price higher than the price above support level are now anxious to sell when the prices return near that old support level.

Look at the example at figure 1.3 , when the price penetrated support level (28000) the sellers who didn`t sell when the price above 28000 are now anxiously sell when the price return near that 28000 (old resistance level).

How i determine support and resistance?

This is the question that commonly asked by the beginner. Actually there are many ways to determine support and resistance, but I would like to determine the support and resistance by using moving average and vertical line.

Moving averages have many methods to analyze the market, one of them is using it for determining support and resistance. For determining support and resistance , I use 65 period of simple moving average (sma).

If the price above the 65 period of sma, i regard that 65 sma line as support level, while if the price below the 65 period of sma i regard that 65 sma line as resistance level.

There aro no rules to use 65 period of sma, the reason I used that period because I think this period suit with my trading style and the market i traded. So you can try the others period until you find the best period that suitable for you.

The other simple way, i determine support and resistance is using the lowest or highest price at certain periods then i put vertical line on it.

B. Type Of Charts

2008-08-09T08:48:00.000-07:00

"All things come to those who wait"

There are many types of chart that commonly used by traders in the market, which are :

1. Line chart

Line chart is not the most popular trading charts, because of the limited trading information that they represent, but they are easy to read and interpret. Line charts consist of individual points, that are connected with straight lines. Usually, each point shows the close of the timeframe, but this can usually be modified to show any one of the open, high, or low. Line charts also show the direction of the timeframe.

If a line chart includes the close, it shows whether the timeframe was an upward timeframe (i.e. closed higher than it opened), or a downward timeframe (i.e. closed lower than it opened), but not in as much detail as either bar or candlestik charts, which include both the open and close. By not including the high and low, line charts do not show the range of the timeframe (i.e. the distance between the high and the low of the Line).

2. Bar chart

Bar chart is a chart that has been using by western for long time, this chart required to produce a standard bar chart consists of the open,high, low, and close prices for the time period under study. A bar chart consists of vertical lines representing the high to low range in prices for that day. The high price refers to the highest price that happened that day. Likewise, the low price refers to the lowest price traded that day.

3. Candlestick Chart

Candlestick chart is a most popular chart type in japan, using these candlesticks, Munehisa Homma become famous because he can use it to predict the price rice for the future by using the past price. This chart has been used for centuries. I like used candlesticks because this type of chart are so powerfull , flexible ( can be combinated with other indicators), and we can know the level of human psychology using this candlesticks. I have my own chapter about how to use japanese candlestick at the next chapter.

4. Three line break chart

The three line break chart is similar in concept to point and figure charts. The decision criteria for determining "reversals" are somewhat different. The three-line break chart looks like a series of rising and falling lines of varying heights.

For japanese traders this chart is described as "more subtle form point and figure charts where reversals are decided by the market and not by arbitrary rules. The Three Line Break Charts are actually Any Line Break Charts. They are not limited to just a three line reversal. You can create Two Line Break Charts, or even Eighteen Line Break Charts, if you wish. A major advantage of the three-line break chart is that there is no arbitrary fixed reversal amount. It is the market's action that will give the indication of a reversal. i will discuss how to use this chart at the next chapter.

5. Renko chart

The Renko chart is a trend following technique. It has acquired its name from a Japanese word "renga" meaning bricks. The renko charts looks similar to the three-bar breakchart since they both have lines that look like blocks.

The trend reversals are indicated by the appearance of a white or black brick. A black brick indicates a new downward trend and white brick indicates a new upward trend. There are situations where Renko charts produce whipsaws, giving indications of short-lived trends near the end. The expectation with a trend following technique is that it allows to ride the major portion of significant trends. The renko chart uses closing prices. The first step is to choose a price range unit. This price range point is the minimum amount the market must move before a renko brick is drawn. The price range point also serves to set the height of the brick. Thus, a five-point renko chart would have bricks that are five points tall.

An important aspect of the renko chart is that rising lines are denoted by equal size white bricks and falling lines are denoted by equal size black bricks. Thus, no matter how large the move, it is shown on the renko chart as equal sized bricks. I will discuss how to use this chart at the next chapter.

6. Kagi chart

The Kagi chart is used for tracking price movements and to make decisions on purchasing stock. It differs from traditional stock charts, such as the Candlestick chart by being mostly independent of time. This feature aids in producing a chart that reduces random noise. Due to its effectiveness in showing a clear path of price movements, the Kagi chart is one of the various charts that investors use to make better decision on the stocks. The most important benefit of this chart is that it is independent of time and change of direction occurs only when a specific amount is reached.

There are many ways to use kagi charts, but the most basic is to buy when the kagi line goes from thin to thick, and to sell when the kagi line changes from thick to thin. Remember that the kagi line becomes thick (i.e., becomes a yang line) when the prior high is exceeded. The kagi line converts to a thin yin line when a prior low is broken.

Kagi charts look similar to swing charts and do not have a time axis. A Kagi chart is created with a series of vertical lines connected by short horizontal lines. The thickness and direction of the lines is based on the price of the underlying stock or asset, as follows:

1. The thickness of the line changes when the price reaches the high or low of the previous vertical line.

2. The direction of the line changes when the price reaches a preset reversal amount, which is usually set at 4%. When a direction change occurs, a short horizontal line is drawn between the lines of opposite direction.

I also will discuss how to read and profit using kagi chart at the next chapter.

A. Technical Vs Fundamental Analysis

2008-08-09T08:14:00.000-07:00

" Let Every Bird Sing its Own Song "

Fundamental analysis is an analysis by analyze the security valuation that involves examining the company`s financial and operation , especially sales, earning, growth potential, assets, debt, management, product , and competition. Whereas technical analysis the art of charting that using the past price to predict the future of the market.

Technical and fundamental analysis have their own excessive and paucity. That`s why is recommended using both technical and fundamental analysis to furnish.

Chapter 1. --- Technical Analysis

2008-08-07T03:11:00.000-07:00

" Even a Thousand Mile Journey Begins with the First Step "

Technical Analysis is the study of market using the past price to learn about human psychology in the market and forecast the future price movement and trends. Martin J.Pring stated that “ technical analysis is the art of identifying trend reversal at a relatively early stage and riding on that trend until weight of evidence show or prove that the trend has reversed’ .

Technical analysis is believed by traders since years , will influence the market price such as fundamental events, natural disasters, and psychological factors are quickly discounted in market activity. In other words, all of these factors will show up in some form of price movement. This technical chart is simply a short-cut form of fundamental analysis. The most important thing about technical analysis is “ Technical analysis deal with probabilities not certainties “, many facts that what we learned are not actually true and what wee seems to be obvious sometimes is not. But, using technical analysis will increase your understanding of the market and give you a new dimension to your trading style, so you can trade with smart and patience.

There is a usefull book titled “ The fountain of gold – the three monkeys record of money” written by homma at 1755, the author stated that “ when all are bearish there is a cause for the price to rice, when everyone is bullish there is cause for price to fall”. There are some good statements of this book that I found at Steve Nison`s book – “ Beyond Candlestick ” , that we can use it for furnishing our trading style, which are :

1. “See no evil “ when you see a bullish or bearish trend , don`t get caught up in it, consider it an opportunity to sell or buy.

2. “ Hear no evil “ When you hear about bullish or bearish news, don`t trade on it. It will be safer for trader to trade after you determine how the market react to a news rather than initiating a trade when the news is released.

3. “ Speak no evil “, don`t speak to other about what are you going in the market “, you will get confused, why i should not tell anyone about my trading plan? The answer is when you tell anyone about your plan to buy or sell in the market and that person said something negative about your decision. You will get confused and then decide not to buy or sell. When you study and learn about the market and have decision on it. It is better don`t tell anyone except that person have better insight than you.

In this chapter i will discuss about :

A. Technical vs Fundamental analysis

B. Type Of Charts

C. Support and Resistance

D. All About Trend

E. Volume and Open interest

F. GAPS

Introduction

2008-07-29T20:50:00.000-07:00

" Technical Analysis deal with probabilities not certainties "

Currently i am writing a book for technical analysis which is might useful for Stock , FOREX , Commodity , and index market for my collection should not for sale.. ^_^

In this books i will discuss about :
Chapter 1 : Technical Analysis
Chapter 2 : Dow theory
Chapter 3 : Japanese Candlestick Methods
Chapter 4 : Renko and Kagi Methods
Chapter 5 : Technical Indicators
Chapter 6 : Powerful Japanese candlestick Combine with Trading Method

I will start step by step, so please understand cos i have other activities..all of this is just recommendation, so please always use your own trading style, technic, and strategy to adjust with it..Every one can make a mistake and trading in the market we will face with probabilities not certainties so i hope do not follow my recommendation if you don`t use your own strategy. This is just recommendations. i do not accountable for your winning and loosing money in the market, that is why i said this is just recommendation.I just try to help, if these recommendations suit and can furnish your trading strategy just used it, but if it is not suit just leave it. This is your own choice. ^_^